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Lira Sinks to Near Record Low as Erdogan Secures Victory

The Turkish Lira slumped to a new record low after President Tayyip Erdogan officially secured victory in the presidential election. Erdoğan also officially continued his term of government into the third decade. However, what will be the economic fate of Türkiye from this victory?

The currency hovers above 20.00 vs. the US Dollar during the day's trading, which is not far from a record low of 20.06. Indeed, in an election period, currency values are highly vulnerable to sharp swings before regular trading hours, including for the Lira.

The Lira has lost more than 6% since the start of the year and 90% of its value over the last decade. This has also put the Turkish Lira and its economy in a severe boom and bust cycle. Inflation attacks and currency crises that the Turkish government must deal with.

The Turkish authorities have taken an increasingly active role in the foreign exchange market with tiny daily movements. Most also note weakness in Turkey's FX reserves and gold shrinking after Erdogan's recent election victory.

 

Analysis Shows That a Symbol of Strife for Turkey Will Continue After Erdogan Resumes His Presidency.

Erdogan has triumphed again despite years of economic turmoil that critics blame on unorthodox economic policies. His surprise appearance in the first round of elections two weeks ago has sparked a sell-off in international bonds.

The result has been steep spikes in the costs of ensuring Turkey's debt exposure amid fading hopes of a shift in economic policy. Analysts are also increasingly cautious about how much economic change Erdogan's new government will herald.

In his victory speech, Erdogan acknowledged that inflation is urgent. He said he would try to reduce this following the central bank's interest rate cut to 8.5% from 19% two years ago.

Trading is expected to be thin for 3-4 days with many European markets. However, investors remain worried about what will happen after Tayyip Erdogan's victory. This slight daily movement is a potential downside.

The Lira's management has limited its decline to just over 2% since the first round of voting two weeks ago. But by default, the Turkish Lira could have fallen by more than 20%. International market bonds, which are the benchmark, have fallen 10% - 15%.

Authorities are expected to exercise even more draconian capital controls. This is necessary because the public believes the government is outside the plans. The government has spent years squeezing life out of the international Lira loan market.

What does this Mean for Turkey's Economy's Future?

Now, after Recep Tayyib Erdogan has officially resumed his power as President of Turkey for another five years, many are trying to predict what will happen to the Turkish economy in his serve a full five-year term. Moreover, he will have held power for 26 years.

Türkiye right now needs a change of government and a breath of fresh air. But Erdogan's victory has made the public worry that he will be vulnerable in social, political, and economic terms.

The significant decline in the last three years and a plummeting Lira are the main problems. Erdoğan said that his plan this time was to make money, starting with high-interest foreign loans and starting the diplomacy of oil-rich Muslim countries.

Some economists say that this plan could be successful in staying out of recession. Another strategy from the 69-year-old President is also more focused on political stability in post-recovery Turkey.

It is the best way to solve economic, social, and political chaos. In the days to come, there may be good changes in the economy.

President Recep Tayyib Erdogan will officially lead Turkey after winning the 2023 Turkish elections. This marks 26 years of Erdogan's leadership. Turkey's economic future is at stake; public concern is also keeping the Lira near a record low.

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