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Turkey's Lira and Stocks Drop as Erdogan Leads First Round

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is currently struggling in the political and economic sectors. Erdogan accepted the battle related to the end of his two-decade rule. Thus, the Turkish economy has also begun to shift and provide contested movements.

Turkey's 2023 election is one of the most significant moments for its economy in its hundred-year history. Their economy received many upheavals, one related to the vanishing currency reserves and increasingly surging inflation.

On Monday, election round 1 was held, and President Tayyip Erdogan accepted the uphill struggle for his reign. This makes the market perform with uncertainty.

Moreover, the Turkish currency has now touched a two-month low of 19.70 at the open and closed at 19.66 to the dollar. Since November, this has been the worst trading session in the Lira/USD market sector.

Meanwhile, the debt sector also showed that five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points. At the same time, stocks issued a market-wide breaker even though the market dropped 6.38 percent afterward.

 

Erdogan is Considered to Have Wrecked Turkey's Economy; the Turkish Lira and Stocks are the Sufferers.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is claiming victory in this very significant moment for the Turkish economy. Indeed, this still needs to be determined because the votes are still counted, and a run-off round looks as distinct as possible.

Governments are also taking steps to reduce public deficits and debt. Türkiye shows that foreign investment is imported significantly. It allows the annual economic growth to average 7% from 2002 to 2007.

Productivity gains, large parts of society also show concern due to reducing inequality, and the public puts money in emerging markets. The impact of the election on the economic sector is unavoidable.

The scenario that can be accepted shortly is, if Erdogan wins, there will be normalization in terms of falling with the West, mainly because of the difficult situation experienced in the geopolitical sector.

Interest rates could have increased by 30% to break inflation, which would cause a nasty recession. And this also causes deterioration in the rule of law. The access needed by Turkey is to show that this country is a vital part of the international community.

Summarizing today's trading results, Turkey's lira held near a two-month low. Turkish stocks also fell, and the banking index slumped by more than 9%. It shows a negative for the markets, but if Erdogan wins, this could continue the economic imbalance in Turkey.

Richard Briggs, senior fund manager, said that if Erdogan wins Turkey's election, Turkey will continue to run large account deficits. And the credible policy framework will be severe because of tremendous pressure on the currency and the economy.

After the Turkey Elections, Does This Indicate an Economic Breaking Point Achievement

It was stated that this year's Turkey presidential and parliamentary election shows movements that could be more precise. Especially because Turkey is during an economic crisis. The rapid rise in the inflation rate, around 50 percent, resulted in an unsustainable situation.

Furthermore, poverty among populations is at a reasonably high figure. Erdogan has been the leader of Turkey for two decades, and in the last five years, is the brink of the Turkish economy. Worrying government bonds have taken this country's ability to an alarming level.

If you look at 2021, when global inflation is accelerating, Erdogan ordered the central bank to splash the interest rate. Macroeconomic stability and financial markets cannot be allowed to be negative, so the latest currency regulation will determine the fate of Erdogan.

Market Stocks and Turkish Currency are now shifting focus to the election. This will have a significant impact because it shows negative movement in round 1 of the election. The Central Bank of Turkey must learn from its decisions in 2021 to stabilize market sentiment.

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